- from TradingView

As always, these are projections not predictions. The near future is always hard to see, & markets are not an exact science.

Still, we know that Donald Trump is set to take the throne for his 2nd term...the 0.04% of the population who aren't inflamed by political tribalism will have the most accurate perspective. Love him or hate him, by now we can have an idea of what he's like. He is not one to go along with what the corp/mil/media-industrial complexes, & their lobbyists & congressional puppets, want him to do. He is not easily deterred once he has decided on a course of action. He's picking loyal people (or so he thinks--a few will inevitably turn on him) & those from his first administration. Trump has never been stupid but at this point, he's older than Biden was when Slow Joe won the throne...it will likely affect his decision-making. And of course there are is the geopolitical "great game" to consider.

So. Ye olde question: how to play it?

My plan is to be cautious but not overly so. I won't pick up many stocks or ETFs...I suspect those markets will be somewhat rocky for at least the next two years if not all four. Will probably buy some bond-backed ETFs (maybe even bonds directly) because if core inflation refuses to slow down & Trump's policies spur general inflation then the Fed may ratchet up the official interest rate again. That would make debt-dependent assets a good value. Apart from that, my focus is on alternative assets now. For me, the main one is my parcel of land. These days most of what I think about is how to improve it, develop it without removing all the trees, leaving some natural environment in it, & getting it ready for a house. All of this will increase equity (the value of the land itself). The only other assets I'm interested in are precious metals & perhaps some crypto, if I can afford it.

More art & crafts coming as always. Stay tuned, folks!

1. Need to get to my land once more before the end of the year...& after the start of '25, if I can withstand the pollen storm. We all know it's coming. If I can keep my allergies from flattening my ass through winter & early spring, I'll get stuff done before the move.
2. The move will be in mid-March. I almost can't wait...so fed up with this shitty apartment complex. There are only three people I sorta care about who live here. They're good people...not too bright, but good. If it weren't for them, I would happily see it burn to the ground after I'm gone.
3. Speaking of people, lately I've been getting back to my own. Current events (& the historical echoes they manifest) are a major factor in turning my head in that direction.
4. Gonna post one more finished piece before the year's end. It won't be what you might be expecting.

Aside from that, more of my thoughts on current events (I never run out of those):

...I don't think he's gonna do it. Too much of our economy depends on braceros from Latin America. If Trump doesn't know that, CEOs & CFOs of agribusiness, dining & hospitality industries certainly do.

I hope president Sheinbaum can face them down, keep her people organized & knock down the cartels a few pegs.

In other news, this went up:

And in conclusion, a little music:

Okay, so...

The price of gold per oz. as of the 10th, at 2049 hrs. Right now it's fidgeting around $2,694 & could go lower but I'm not worried about that. This is the 2nd instance in the last 30 days where it cleared the $2,700 level. It's no surprise, given how jittery people are...the Assad regime completely fell & the leading rebel faction is taking over Syria. Israel & Hezbollah ain't got a ceasefire yet & the war in Gaza is ongoing. So people in oil markets are nervous. Also the Fed will hold their meeting next week & no one knows what to expect, but a 25-bp rate cut is likely. And Nvidia has stumbled once or twice, which ain't good for a show horse. Yes indeed...gold is one of the best assets to hold.

Taken from a screenshot of local tourist attractions in Idaho. Never been there but this caught my eye because of what I have to do with the land. Felling trees is rough work for sure but even so, I'm glad we have chainsaws today. The saw the pioneer statue-guy is holding is the old "two-man saw"...before the internal combustion engine, the only way to take down a tree was with one of those & an axe. There's a reason why those saws were known as "misery whips"!

What else...here's an old sketch from before I moved to America's appendix:

...plus some great advice:

First, my thoughts on current events:

I added the frame & caption. As you surely know, gentle reader, since Putin took the throne things have been risky in Russia--& beyond Russia. His critics & competitors seem to keep falling out of windows. Except for Yevgeny Prigozhin...funny how that plane fell out of the sky, eh?

Good heavens!...how rude. Erdogan did the right thing. We can't have noisy hooligans disrupting the great leader's speech, after all. It is an offense to the Sublime Por--uh, to the president of the democratic republic of Turkiyē!

With that out of the way, here's some found humor:

It's almost two in the morning & I really want some fried chicken.

Man...I'm becoming more of a hick every year.

A few examples of what it was like:

quick handles for the sharpening files. (Did a better job on the flat file handle)

Spraypainted the heads of my sledge & axe. (Tools are easy to lose on any jobsite, urban or rural)

My 3rd cutting attempt. This is why seeing how the tree leans is the most important step. I tried to free it with my axe...no go. On the bright side, my first two attempts were successful & quick, I'm still pretty good with an axe, & nothing fell on me. I learned a few things that day.

My G00gle Maps review for where I stayed a couple nights. (The rest of the time I laid down in the van)

On to planning the next trip there. I wanna do two before the end of the year, if possible. You read a few thoughts on that in a previous entry. I've been doing cutting exercises on the wood piled up from past treasure hunting expeditions around town...got pics but you're probably not interested in those. (I make a mess every time. Chainsaws are not for neat freaks) Yesterday I split the lame handle off the round file & made a new one for it:

I have three more round files...they're consumables, since they wear out. Gonna make handles for all of 'em this week.

...well, fuck.

I just hope this doesn't flare up into World War III. (Unless you consider the Russo-Ukraine & Israel-vs-Iran's puppets as such, in which case I hope we don't get World War IV out of this)

One can certainly argue for the latter designation, as

• Biden's brain trust authorized transfers of long-range missiles & AP landmines to Zelenskiy & co., in addition to the billion$$ we've wasted on them already.
• Britain decided the same for their long-range missiles.
• If I have my info right, so has France. Even if I'm wrong, Germany has already committed tanks to Ukraine's military.

Am really hoping this doesn't become the next global hot war...not just for obvious reasons but also because of consequences that will almost certainly follow, if it should come about. Consider:

Europe, particularly Western Europe, is in a "baby bust". We are too but theirs is worse; it is a key factor beneath the immigration problems, ongoing Islamic terrorism, sovereignty loss inside certain European & UK cities & towns, & other evidence of their decline. The West is in no position to fight a total war with Russia; it was in a far better position when WWII broke out than it is now. Such a war would devastate any countries that get into it. There would be tremendous physical, environmental & economic costs, all of which can only further weaken us. All of which would be to the advantage of China.

Do not think for a moment that the eastern dragon wouldn't take advantage of such a situation. It sure would, especially with Xi or someone like him on the throne. Xi won't live or rule forever but the CCP will for the foreseeable future. If Putin's regime launches a nuclear missile, that will likely turn their war with Ukraine into a total war against Europe...& perhaps against us, depending on how Trump's people respond. All of this would be in China's favor. If we spend men & money on Ukraine's defense, we won't be in any position to help Taiwan if or when the CCP decides to really take it. Ditto for the farthest island chain of Japan (which China wants)...& for Israel. If it becomes a world war & we send troops, I won't be surprised at all if Iran attacks Israel directly instead of using its proxy forces, Hezbollah & the remnants of Hamas.

...the S&P, that is.

The NASDAQ index did slightly better but not enough to warrant serious attention.

Can't help but wonder how the markets will do in '25...Trump will assume the throne. He's starting to have the same problems Biden has, so odds are members of his administration will do at least some of his thinking for him. My crystal ball is cloudy, as it often is. Things could go in a number of different directions.

As usual, the smart things to do are watch, prep, wait, keep cool, & go about one's business.

Right now I'm back "home". By that I mean the old 1BR unit in the human anthill where I've lived for way too long.

I did not get any logs or bring them back here. But the trip was not a total failure, either...depending on how you measure it, you could say the trip was a great success. (I wouldn't completely agree with that assessment)

Things I've learned in no particular order:

• Sometimes you do your best cooking when under stress. I was running behind...before I got the rental van & drove out to the land, I whipped up a batch of pasta sauce & used some of it to make a pan of lasagna with. Dunno how the latter tastes yet but if past experience is any guide, it will be good.
• Tree work will be even harder than I thought. This is as much due to my chronic conditions as anything else...I will still get it done. Even so, it will take a good long while. Tree work will blow you the fuck out.
• Corollary to the above: if you start to feel tired, take a break. 20 minutes to a half-hour should do. If you can sleep for an hour & still have sufficient daylight when you wake up, that might be a good idea. This is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash.
• Tree work is like farming: the weather determines when you can do it.
• I did not need to use my old mil backpack with the internal frame. It was too big for this kinda trip. Will use my smaller one next time. (They're both scavved packs, too. I found 'em by the dumpster in like-new condition!)
• Chainsaws can be temperamental... You must learn how to deal with your particular saw's quirks, in order to make it work for you.
• I bought motorcyclist jeans for this. They're not what professionals wear for tree work but they should do...they're kevlar-lined from knees to waist. I took out the kneepads after the first day. For my purposes, the pads are useless excess weight.
• My work boots do not have steel toecaps. One of my two books says you should always wear steel-toed boots when doing tree work. I've seen guys wearing regular shoes while felling, limbing & bucking...I want protection. The problem is that steel-toed boots are heavy. In this kind of work, you don't want to pack any excess weight. Gonna look for a better solution.
• My comforter/quilt & blanket worked as a bedroll when I laid down in the van, but an inflatable mattress would be better.
• Gonna pack in some food on the next trip, so I don't have to go out to eat & leave the property that often. It'll save on gas, money & time.
• My bringing in gallon jugs of potable water was a great idea...possibly the best idea I had for this trip.
• Nice neighbors are good to have around.
• The spraycan of insect repellent was a good idea, but it would be better to bring two.
• A combination Allen wrench is a necessity, also. If I'd had that at the time, I could've adjusted my saw's idle.
• Of all the things one does when felling a tree, the most important step may be the first one: take a good look at it & figure out what direction it's leaning in. Many--maybe most--trees lean slightly, especially tall thin ones. Doing this carefully will save you a lot of trouble in many cases.
• There are times when you should call in professional help. There are times when you should handle an unforeseen problem yourself. Those situations are not always clearly different from each other. It takes some thought...& most likely, enough experience.
• So far, the easiest traditional logging tool to handle is an axe with a 3.5-lb. head...however, I wouldn't want to have to cut down every intended tree with it.
• Am not at a point where I can reach definitive conclusions about this but, based on my experience so far, you do not need a file guide in order to sharpen the chain on your saw. Not if you can move a file in a consistent direction & angle. The one time I've done it so far, it worked quite well...I suspect the secret, as for sharpening every other tool, is consistent practice.
• Helmets are annoying to wear. Wear one when you're working anyway.

Doing this while coping with lower back/hip pain will be a big challenge, for sure... I need to find options for pain reduction that don't involve narcotics or pills you can't get except by prescription (or street dealer). Will have to do more research.

Yes, I have pics. If any of you want to see 'em, let me know & I'll put a few in the next post.

Be well, kids. Keep your noses clean; don't do anything I wouldn't do--or half the things I would do. ;-)

Tomorrow I pick up the rental veehickul, return to my 1BR unit in the apartment anthill & pick up my supplies. Then I'm going down to my property for a relaxing idyll of tree work.

I'm posting this so all you followers know what I'll be up to for the next few days. It's important, since it's unlikely I'll log onto NG during this time. If you missed it, the opening two sentences are packed with sarcasm. There is nothing relaxing about any work involving a chainsaw. That is what my weekend will consist of: felling a few trees to make some space (enough for a place to park, at least), cutting up the downed trees to salvage what usable wood they have, & stacking the better small logs inside the rental to haul back to the apartment. Where I will lug them up the stairs, one at a time, & stack them to dry out. (They'll probably need a tarp over the pile, what with the weather we get this time of year)

Just to add a little spice to the mix, I have a chronic condition that affects my sense of balance &, to a lesser extent, my hearing. Already decided that if I have a flareup I'll either stop & wait until it's over, or quit for the day. So yeah...as if it wasn't dangerous enough already. This is small-scale logging, basically. Logging is one of the most dangerous activities a man can do; the only jobs I know of that are statistically more perilous are underwater welding (or anything involving a wetsuit & oxygen tank), hard-rock mining, serving as an infantryman & maybe being a NASCAR driver.

If you get a chance, gentle reader, do stop by this space from time to time. If I update it sometime next week then I'm probably okay unless I say something to the contrary. If the next blog entry comes after two weeks to a month, I may have been injured & will be recovering as best I can. If you don't see another entry after this one then I'm either dead or brain-damaged into diapers. Note that I scheduled two art posts well in advance so when they go up, do not assume that I'm here. I could be elsewhere while the posting module here does its thing.

Am about half-packed for the trip right now. Really need to do more, but I may not get the chance to sharpen the chain on my saw until after I get to my land. Hope I can do it before I leave town...it would be much easier to do it on a level surface in a well-lit area, like my living room. We'll see how things play out.

I don't have proper chaps or pants for tree work but I did buy a pair of armored jeans at a motorcycle supply shop today...they have solid kneecaps, & kevlar reinforcement through the thighs (I think the butt is armored too but if it isn't, that's not as important). Got an open-faced motorcycle helmet too (that was a while ago). None of these items are perfect but they'll have to do for now, & they're certainly better than "regular" clothes. If you go into the woods carrying a saw & only wearing normal clothes--shorts, jeans, blazer & slacks, sneakers, sandals, whatever--you might as well go butt nekkid, because that is what normal civilian clothing amounts to in this kind of activity.

Wonder if I should bring a saucepan?...if I do, then I could bring a couple cans of soup, cook it over a fire. I certainly won't lack for fuel. >|-D

Aside from getting crippled or maimed, my next worst fear is if a falling tree gets hung up in another tree. That would be serious. If it happens then I'll call whichever local tree service has the best ratings.

Items to bring:

• saw (duh)
• supplies for saw (fuel, bar oil, scrench, old toothbrush (for cleaning), files, mineral spirits)
• shovel
• underwear, socks, sweat-wicking shirts
• potable water (4 gal.+)
• axe
• maul
• soap
• 5-gal. bucket (for washing up), washrags
• mosquito repellent
• bandanas
• first aid kit
• ibuprofen
• pain-relieving cream, Tiger Balm
• motor oil (for rental vehicle--just in case)
• grate from the grill i.p.
• mtrcycle helmet
• shades (2 pr)
• FL map
• charging cord for phone (2)

If you feel like it, go take a look at my latest sketch.

I don't believe I've forgotten anything, but it's still possible. Of course I won't know for sure until well after I get there. And with that...